Fun With The SP500

Which one do we want?. These are both the decade chart of the SP500, monthly and quarterly time frames. Let's look back to around 04' and see what the market did then. It took about 11 months for the SP500 to chew threw consolidation before lifting to new levels. Looking at current Stocastics as well, add in some light current buying volume and my guess is that 1250/1300 is a good breaking point for our current market to roll over. Compare current volatility to that of back around 03/04 and you will find that this current market is much more volatile. You can tell this because the Bollinger Bands are spread further apart.

Now let's peek at the same chart but in a Quarterly View. What do we see? Back in 02/03' the market bottomed and based then started the rebound which lasted until 2008' In that 03/04 time period the market had Low stocastics that turned up and began a 5 year run. Fast forward to our current period and you will see that in 09' the market bottomed. This new recovery and bull market is in it's 2nd year. The SP500 is also currently trading over the 20/40 Moving Averages which is a very good thing. Can this current bull market last? Can it continue for another few years and reach 1600 and beyond? We will just have to watch but we must monitor both of these charts because if the market fails it will look a lot like the monthly Decade SP500 until consolidation is completed. If the SP500 pushes higher over the next quarter or two we should have a very good chance at a multi year bull market and 1600.

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