Sunday, March 27, 2011

Fun With The SP500

Which one do we want?. These are both the decade chart of the SP500, monthly and quarterly time frames. Let's look back to around 04' and see what the market did then. It took about 11 months for the SP500 to chew threw consolidation before lifting to new levels. Looking at current Stocastics as well, add in some light current buying volume and my guess is that 1250/1300 is a good breaking point for our current market to roll over. Compare current volatility to that of back around 03/04 and you will find that this current market is much more volatile. You can tell this because the Bollinger Bands are spread further apart.

Now let's peek at the same chart but in a Quarterly View. What do we see? Back in 02/03' the market bottomed and based then started the rebound which lasted until 2008' In that 03/04 time period the market had Low stocastics that turned up and began a 5 year run. Fast forward to our current period and you will see that in 09' the market bottomed. This new recovery and bull market is in it's 2nd year. The SP500 is also currently trading over the 20/40 Moving Averages which is a very good thing. Can this current bull market last? Can it continue for another few years and reach 1600 and beyond? We will just have to watch but we must monitor both of these charts because if the market fails it will look a lot like the monthly Decade SP500 until consolidation is completed. If the SP500 pushes higher over the next quarter or two we should have a very good chance at a multi year bull market and 1600.

http://tinyurl.com/4nlzx3n

http://tinyurl.com/4lvld2x


Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Stuck in a BOX!

SP500, NDX, DOW Team we've been stuck in this box for some time now and who knows if today is a reversal day or not. Still much uncertainty in OMAR / Charlie Sheen land. I'm going to be watching the close pretty close on these up days. If it is starting to get bought, institutional money is starting to come in. Now, as we know DAY ONE dosen't start the trend but volume at the end of the day is going to be the horns in front of the bull when ever it happens.


Saturday, March 5, 2011

Don't just jump in!

One of the biggest mistakes I made when I first started trading is that I didn’t understand the concept of sectors moving together and being in sync with the market. I was just throwing money at any stock I heard on TV or I read about. The reality of this is, STOCK SECTORS MOVE TOGETHER. They follow economic cycles, world news and institutional interest. Let’s start off right and get in sync from day one even before we place a trade. Sectors and markets move together, Industrials follow industrials, chips follow chips, transports follow transports and so on and so on. So we need you to set up a watch list with some of best of breed stocks from each sector that we talked about earlier when evaluating stocks. This watch list is going to have many stocks on it, and each day through your trading platform we are going to know which direction the sectors are moving. We are going to place the IBD top 25 on this list because IBD is a great source of finding the best momentum plays in the market. Earlier we also talked about common themes that you might have heard on any CNBC show. It’s important to watch these shows, CNBC will help you stay in sync with the markets and will also point out possible new plays that you can cross reference with IBD. CNBC stocks go on the list too.


On this watch list there are a few “TICKERS” that I need you to include. These are market following symbols or sector ETFs that will make it easier for you to know what sectors are moving or what is not.


NDX NASDAQ 100 stock group

SP500 Group of 500 stocks that makes up the SP500

DOW 30 30 toP DOW stocks

IYT Transportation ETF

SMH Semi Conductor ETF “TECH”

DBC Commodity ETF

XLF Financial ETF

XRT Retail ETF

GL Gold

SLV Silver

OIH Oil ETF

XLE Energy ETF


These symbols go on the list first. After them put the IBD 25, any stocks you want to follow from CNBC and then any other stocks you want to follow.


IMPORTANT!


When you put the watch list together make sure the column right after the stock symbol is “ % CHANGE “ Sort your stocks from the “BEST” “HIGEST GAINER” to the “WORST” “BIGGEST LOSS”. Each day when you turn on your trading platform the days best performers will already be ranked for you. You will notice this because of the tracking stocks that I gave you above, the sectors will be grouped together and indicate which way the market is headed. Over time you will begin to notice that sectors in motion stay in motion for a period of time. You want to be in the sectors that are moving to the positive. If they are at the bottom of your list, guess what? They are not making you money and you need to be in something different.


IMPORTANT!


The next thing you need to monitor is the SP500 that we put on the watch list. You need to be following stocks that are tracking ABOVE the SP500.



Sym

(%)Chg

Last

($)Chg

JDSU

9.47%

27.52

2.38

SLV

4.53%

34.93

1.52

NFLX

4.15%

211.8

8.43

RVBD

3.68%

44.5

1.58

LULU

2.09%

77.24

1.58

PCX

1.43%

25.6

0.36

OPEN

0.86%

89.88

0.77

JNPR

0.80%

44.11

0.35

MU

0.78%

11.66

0.09

DBC

0.56%

30.45

0.17

DECK

0.53%

86.7

0.46

AAPL

0.13%

360.01

0.45

BIDU

0.00%

121.85

0

DE

-0.10%

92.54

-0.09

IPI

-0.16%

38.46

-0.06

UNP

-0.19%

95.36

-0.18

$NDX

-0.50%

2,359.96

-11.8

NVDA

-0.53%

20.76

-0.11

SIRI

-0.55%

1.81

-0.01

ARMH

-0.58%

29.22

-0.17

CRM

-0.59%

129.3

-0.77

SMH

-0.63%

36.46

-0.23

AVGO

-0.64%

32.79

-0.21

CRUS

-0.68%

24.81

-0.17

$SPX

-0.74%

1,321.15

-9.82

SWN

-0.95%

37.61

-0.36

BAC

-0.98%

14.13

-0.14

CAT

-1.22%

102.98

-1.27

JPM

-1.30%

45.48

-0.6

IYT

-1.33%

91.48

-1.23

FCX

-1.35%

51.69

-0.71

CSX

-1.50%

74.57

-1.13

POT

-1.57%

61

-0.97

F

-2.10%

14.45

-0.31

GS

-2.24%

160.8

-3.69

MS

-3.10%

28.4

-0.91

XRT

-0.47%

49.11

-0.23

Thursday, March 3, 2011

DE added

A few favorable economic reports came out this morning and the market is really moving. The recovery even though it is slow it is happening. The Federal Reserve made some positive comments too. All of our old leaders CRUS, RVBD, CAT are moving in a positive direction. Today I added DE "deere". This is a agricultural play capitalizing on the making of heavy machinery and farming. DE needs to get above the 20 DMA to really confirm the move but in the long run it will move higher, period. The old high was just over 97. Expect DE to hit 100, we just don't when.